In the Philippines – Country Climate and Development Report 2022 just published by the World Bank, it suggests the climate shocks will hamper the Philippines’ economic activities, damage infrastructure, and induce deep social disruptions if adaptation measures are not employed.
The Philippines Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) comprehensively analyzes how climate change will affect the country’s ability to meet its development goals and pursue green, resilient, and inclusive development.
The Philippines aims to become a high-income economy by 2045, but climate change risks are making this target elusive. Climate shocks come in the form of extreme weather events or slow onset trends of temperature increases, changing rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels, will hamper economic activities, damage infrastructure, and induce deep social disruptions.
Current annual losses from typhoons are estimated to reach 1.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and as much as 4.6 percent of GDP in extreme cases like Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) in 2013. Climate change in the Philippines will continue and accelerate. Mean temperatures in the country have already increased by 0.68°C from 1951–2015, increasing by 0.1°C per decade.
Projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) multi-model ensemble indicate that:
(a) temperatures in the Philippines will increase by about 1-2°C by the end of the 21st century
(b) while average rainfall may not change much, variability and intensity are likely to increase; and
(c) extreme events will become stronger and more frequent The northern and central parts of the country are projected to become wetter, and the southern part drier throughout the year.
Without action, climate change will impose substantial economic and human costs, affecting the poorest households the most. CCDR estimates show that the economic damages in the Philippines could reach up to 7.6 percent of GDP by 2030 and 13.6 percent of GDP by 2040, influence all sectors.
The Philippines is a relatively low emitter of GHG (greenhouse gas), but emissions are growing. The country’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions (2.2 tCO2e) are among the lowest in East Asia, below those of Indonesia (3.7 tCO2e), Vietnam (4.7 tCO2e), and China (9 tCO2e). However, emissions are expected to rise from 234 MtCO2e in 2020 to 399 MtCO2e in 2030. The energy sector accounts for 54 percent of total emissions, while agriculture is the second largest source, accounting for a quarter of emissions. Transport is the biggest fossil fuel-consuming sector and the largest source of urban air pollution, and will likely quadruple by 2050 under current scenarios and policies. The overall share of fossil fuels in the primary energy supply increased from 60 to 67 percent from 2010 to 2019.
Selected development and climate priorities
The CCDR undertakes an in-depth analysis of climate challenges and opportunities for climate related actions in selected sectors that impact the country’s development ambitions.
- Improving water resource management
- Increasing climate resilience in agriculture
- Toward an energy transition
- Reducing emissions from transport
- Managing threats and promoting mitigation in urban areas
On the economy-wide impacts of climate action, the report points out that the mitigation measures would increase GDP by about 0.5 percent in 2040 and generate 80,000 jobs. Introducing carbon pricing would lead to less than a 1 percent consumption reduction by 2030 compared to the pre-reform period.
Given the projected loss of physical capital due to climate damage, public and private investments are needed to finance adaptation through climate-resilient infrastructure.
The financial sector will play a critical role in financing mitigation investments, particularly given the government’s limited ability to provide financing. Adopting some form of carbon pricing instruments (CPIs) could induce additional fiscal revenues to finance much-needed climate actions. CCDR simulations indicate that setting a moderate price on carbon of up to USD5/tCO2 could signal firms and individuals to adopt low-carbon technologies while raising revenues of up to 0.4 percent of GDP per year. The mechanism for carbon pricing is important and can be calibrated
to ensure equity.
The challenges climate change poses to the Philippines’ ability to meet its development challenges are severe. Inaction will substantially reduce growth and increase hardship for countless Filipinos. However, this report shows that responding to this challenge is well within the country’s capacity. Many actions require building on previous work, scaling projects, and improving their implementation. Many sectors need to take new actions, but their cost is relatively modest.
Source
World Bank Group. 2022. Philippines Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series;. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank Group. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/38280 License: CC BY-NC-ND.